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Data Science 
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Operational

A shift in transitional forests of the North American boreal will persist through 2100

This research developed a machine learning model to predict current and future boreal forest canopy heights across northern regions using satellite data and climate projections. The study combines NASA's ICESat-2 satellite's vegetation height observations with climate and soil data to understand how forest canopy heights might change under different future climate scenarios. (Summarized with AI)

Organization
Launch Date

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Key Staffs

High northern latitude changes with Arctic amplification across a latitudinal forest gradient suggest a shift towards an increased presence of trees and shrubs. The persistence of change may depend on the future scenarios of climate and on the current state, and site history, of forest structure. Here, we explore the persistence of a gradient-based shift in the boreal by connecting current forest patterns to recent tree cover trends and future modeled estimates of canopy height through 2100. Results show variation in the predicted potential height changes across the structural gradient from the boreal forest through the taiga-tundra ecotone. Positive potential changes in height are concentrated in transitional forests, where recent positive changes in cover prevail, while potential change in boreal forest is highly variable. Results are consistent across climate scenarios, revealing a persistent biome shift through 2100 in North America concentrated in transitional landscapes regardless of climate scenario.

Contact Us

For general inquiries about the Data Science.

Faauliuli Laulu

Project Support Specialist

301-286-9426 faauliuli.a.laulu@nasa.gov
Mark Carroll

Lead

301-614-6974 mark.carroll@nasa.gov
General inquiries about the scientific programs at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center may be directed to the Center Public Affairs office at 1.301.286.8955.